Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 10
Qabala vs Qarabag
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Qabala host Qarabag on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Premyer Liqa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Qabala 10%, draw 18%, Qarabag 72%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Qabala €206K, Qarabag €1.3M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premyer Liqa matchday 10: 466 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Premyer Liqa average of 26% this round.
- Premyer Liqa: M. Zlomislić is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2078).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Qabala goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 1–18%
- 1–38%
- 0–18%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Qabala 1355 · Qarabag 1821
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 1 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Qarabag · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1879
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Qabala
10th in Premyer Liqa · 4 pts from 8
- 29 AugDŞamaxı FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1324
- 3 MayLZira Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1328
- 5 AprWKapaz Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1291
- 15 MarLNeftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1325
- 10 MarLSabah FA Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1347
Qarabag
3rd in Premyer Liqa · 17 pts from 7
- 11 OctWImisli FK Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa1825
- 27 AugLTwente UEFA Conference League1776
- 20 AugWTwente UEFA Conference League1744
- 13 AugWDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1737
- 6 AugLDynamo Kyiv UEFA Conference League1765
Season outlook
From the Premyer Liqa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qabala | 4 /8 | 27.4 | 0% | 0% | 85% | 12th |
| Qarabag | 17 /7 | 72.8 | 54% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile