Liga MX · Apertura - 13
Puebla vs Monterrey
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
Puebla host Monterrey on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Puebla 23%, draw 27%, Monterrey 50%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Puebla €817K, Monterrey €2.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Liga MX Apertura - 13: 303 points.
- Style contrast in possession (Liga MX): Puebla rank #16 of 18, Monterrey #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Puebla goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Puebla 1690 · Monterrey 1993
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Puebla · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 (Good) · Elo 1854
Monterrey · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1912
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Puebla
12th in Liga MX · 16 pts from 12
- 17 OctDClub Tijuana Liga MX1678
- 10 OctDLeon Liga MX1680
- 27 SepLTigres UANL Liga MX1697
- 19 SepDAtlante FC Liga MX1700
- 16 SepLToluca Liga MX1704
Monterrey
8th in Liga MX · 17 pts from 11
- 19 OctWCF Pachuca Liga MX1973
- 11 OctDClub America Liga MX1971
- 26 SepLAtlante FC Liga MX1962
- 20 SepWCruz Azul Liga MX1979
- 13 SepDTigres UANL Liga MX1987
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 16 /12 | 20.8 | 0% | 1% | 6% | 13th |
| Monterrey | 17 /11 | 25.6 | 1% | 19% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Puebla: direct (how Gerardo Espinoza Ahumada plays) · Monterrey: possession-based (how Matías Jesús Almeyda plays)