Liga MX · Apertura - 11
Puebla 1–1 Leon
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
PueblaTeam 1687LeonTeam 1944- Eduardo Armenta 87'
- Ismael Díaz 42'
We gave Leon 46% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 42'Ismael DíazLeon:Ismael Díaz
- 46'Jesús LaraLeon:Jesús Lara
- Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges off56'Puebla:Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges off
- L. Hernández off56'Puebla:L. Hernández off
- 57'Fernando Beltran offLeon:Fernando Beltran off
- 57'Ismael Díaz offLeon:Ismael Díaz off
- 57'Jesús Lara offLeon:Jesús Lara off
- Omar Moreno off66'Puebla:Omar Moreno off
- 70'Edgar Guerra offLeon:Edgar Guerra off
- Heriberto Jurado80'Puebla:Heriberto Jurado
- Fernando Monarrez off80'Puebla:Fernando Monarrez off
- Alejandro Organista off81'Puebla:Alejandro Organista off
- 85'Diber Cambindo offLeon:Diber Cambindo off
- Eduardo Armenta87'Puebla:Eduardo Armenta
- 90+1'Jordi CortizoLeon:Jordi Cortizo
Before kick-off (provisional): 26% · 28% · 46%(Puebla · draw · Leon)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Puebla €802K, Leon €1.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Liga MX Apertura - 11: 257 points.
- Puebla's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Puebla
9th in Liga MX · 14 pts from 10
- 27 SepLTigres UANL Liga MX1697
- 19 SepDAtlante FC Liga MX1700
- 16 SepLToluca Liga MX1704
- 12 SepWNecaxa Liga MX1669
- 30 AugLClub America Liga MX1687
Leon
5th in Liga MX · 17 pts from 10
- 28 SepWFC Juarez Liga MX1911
- 21 SepDClub Queretaro Liga MX1963
- 15 SepWAtletico San Luis Liga MX1932
- 11 SepLU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX1945
- 6 SepWClub America Leagues Cup1955
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 14 /10 | 20.7 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 14th |
| Leon | 17 /10 | 26.1 | 2% | 21% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Puebla · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1847
Leon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2014
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: creative · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Puebla: direct (how Gerardo Espinoza Ahumada plays) · Leon: balanced profile (how Javier Marcelo Gandolfi plays)