Eredivisie · Regular Season - 11
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven host Willem II on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: PSV Eindhoven 79%, draw 14%, Willem II 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: PSV Eindhoven €8.7M, Willem II €799K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eredivisie matchday 11: 470 points.
- Draw chance 14%, below the Eredivisie average of 26% this round.
- Eredivisie: S. Dest is the highest-rated defender (2365).
- Style contrast in attacking (Eredivisie): PSV Eindhoven rank #1 of 18, Willem II #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. PSV Eindhoven goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–18%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.4 pts
Team Elo: PSV Eindhoven 2171 · Willem II 1701
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
PSV Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2174
Willem II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1768
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
PSV Eindhoven
3rd in Eredivisie · 19 pts from 9
- 17 OctLADO Den Haag Eredivisie2156
- 13 OctLRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2208
- 9 OctWHeerenveen Eredivisie2206
- 20 SepLTwente Eredivisie2259
- 13 SepWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie2182
Willem II
18th in Eredivisie · 2 pts from 9
- 17 OctLSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1716
- 11 OctLUtrecht Eredivisie1744
- 19 SepLFortuna Sittard Eredivisie1741
- 15 SepLAjax Eredivisie1753
- 11 SepDAZ Alkmaar Eredivisie1739
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 19 /9 | 71.4 | 39% | 97% | 0% | 1st |
| Willem II | 2 /9 | 27.3 | 0% | 0% | 80% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
PSV Eindhoven: possession-based · creative (how Peter Bosz plays) · Willem II: balanced profile (how John Stegeman plays)