Eredivisie · Regular Season - 8
PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV EindhovenTeam 2155HeerenveenTeam 1837We gave PSV Eindhoven 70% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 70% · 17% · 13%(PSV Eindhoven · draw · Heerenveen)
Our most likely score was 2–1 (9%); the result 2–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: PSV Eindhoven €9.9M, Heerenveen €2.0M.
- PSV Eindhoven were without 1 expected starter: R. Pepi (2258).
- Heerenveen were without 1 expected starter: D. Proper (1882).
- Draw chance was 20%, below the Eredivisie average of 26% this round.
- Eredivisie: S. Dest was the highest-rated defender (2390).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
PSV Eindhoven
3rd in Eredivisie · 16 pts from 7
- 20 SepLTwente Eredivisie2259
- 13 SepWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie2182
- 10 SepDShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League2214
- 5 SepWAjax Eredivisie2199
- 30 AugWUtrecht Eredivisie2173
Heerenveen
10th in Eredivisie · 9 pts from 7
- 19 SepWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie1867
- 13 SepDTelstar Eredivisie1867
- 6 SepLAZ Alkmaar Eredivisie1883
- 30 AugDWillem II Eredivisie1884
- 22 AugLPEC Zwolle Eredivisie1940
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 16 /7 | 73.1 | 50% | 97% | 0% | 1st |
| Heerenveen | 9 /7 | 46.3 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
PSV Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 2289
Heerenveen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1946
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
PSV Eindhoven: possession-based · creative (how Peter Bosz plays) · Heerenveen: balanced profile (how Robin Veldman plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.