Primera División · Clausura - 11
Progreso 2–0 Juventud
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
ProgresoTeam 1475JuventudTeam 1572- gary silva 87'
We gave Juventud 37% to win: Progreso won.
- Ramiro Cristóbal –13'Progreso:Ramiro Cristóbal –
- Matteo copelotti – for Maximiliano Juambeltz –58'Progreso:Matteo copelotti – for Maximiliano Juambeltz –
- gary silva – for Ramiro Cristóbal –58'Progreso:gary silva – for Ramiro Cristóbal –
- Ayrton Cougo –60'Progreso:Ayrton Cougo –
- 61'facundo dominguez for Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani –Juventud:facundo dominguez for Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sani –
- 61'Gastón Pereiro – for Bruno Larregui –Juventud:Gastón Pereiro – for Bruno Larregui –
- Gastón Silva – for Emiliano Alvarez –67'Progreso:Gastón Silva – for Emiliano Alvarez –
- Facundo De Leon – for Ayrton Cougo –67'Progreso:Facundo De Leon – for Ayrton Cougo –
- 74'Emanuel Cecchini – for Rodrigo Sebastian·Chagas Diaz –Juventud:Emanuel Cecchini – for Rodrigo Sebastian·Chagas Diaz –
- 74'bruno arady – for Mirko DiazJuventud:bruno arady – for Mirko Diaz
- 79'facundo perez – for Ramiro Miguel Peralta –Juventud:facundo perez – for Ramiro Miguel Peralta –
- gary silva –81'Progreso:gary silva –
- Agustin Codagnone – for Agustín Ocampo –84'Progreso:Agustin Codagnone – for Agustín Ocampo –
- gary silva –87'Progreso:gary silva –
Before kick-off (provisional): 34% · 29% · 37%(Progreso · draw · Juventud)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–0 had 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Progreso €293K, Juventud €367K.
- Juventud were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Progreso
16th in Primera División - Apertura · 29 pts from 32
- 10 OctDPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1474
- 3 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1487
- 26 SepWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1444
- 19 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1382
- 13 SepLCerro Uruguay Primera Division1375
Juventud
9th in Primera División - Apertura · 40 pts from 32
- 11 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1568
- 4 OctDBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1564
- 27 SepDCerro Uruguay Primera Division1582
- 13 SepDDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1546
- 6 SepDClub Nacional Uruguay Primera Division1573
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 68 /69 | 70.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
| Juventud | 101 /69 | 103.6 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Progreso · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.7 (Poor) · Elo 1555
Juventud · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1635
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –