Primera División · Clausura - 13
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Progreso host Defensor Sporting on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Progreso 43%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Progreso €308K, Defensor Sporting €314K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Progreso goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Progreso 1499 · Defensor Sporting 1472
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Progreso · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1573
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Progreso
16th in Primera División - Apertura · 32 pts from 33
- 17 OctWJuventud Uruguay Primera Division1462
- 10 OctDPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1474
- 3 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1487
- 26 SepWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1444
- 19 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1382
Defensor Sporting
13th in Primera División - Apertura · 35 pts from 33
- 17 OctLBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1456
- 10 OctLCerro Uruguay Primera Division1484
- 3 OctLAlbion FC Uruguay Primera Division1474
- 27 SepWDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1472
- 20 SepLClub Nacional Uruguay Primera Division1462
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 71 /70 | 72.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
| Defensor Sporting | 96 /70 | 97.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile