3. Liga · Regular Season - 8
Preußen Münster 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · LVM-Preußenstadion, Muenster
Preußen MünsterTeam 1524Rot-Weiß EssenTeam 1641We gave Rot-Weiß Essen 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 35% · 28% · 37%(Preußen Münster · draw · Rot-Weiß Essen)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–3 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Preußen Münster €259K, Rot-Weiß Essen €503K.
- Home advantage made Preußen Münster the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (3. Liga): Preußen Münster ranked #18 of 20, Rot-Weiß Essen #2.
- Rot-Weiß Essen were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Preußen Münster
8th in 3. Liga · 11 pts from 7
- 20 SepLWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1552
- 16 SepDFC Saarbrücken Germany 3 Liga1537
- 13 SepWStuttgart II Germany 3 Liga1565
- 5 SepWHavelse Germany 3 Liga1586
- 21 AugLKarlsruher SC Germany DFB Pokal1594
Rot-Weiß Essen
3rd in 3. Liga · 14 pts from 7
- 20 SepDHansa Rostock Germany 3 Liga1686
- 16 SepWWaldhof Mannheim Germany 3 Liga1692
- 12 SepWWürzburger Kickers Germany 3 Liga1626
- 5 SepWFC Viktoria Köln Germany 3 Liga1669
- 29 AugDSV Wehen Germany 3 Liga1647
Season outlook
From the 3. Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 11 /7 | 56.3 | 3% | 17% | 1% | 9th |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 14 /7 | 65.6 | 22% | 64% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Preußen Münster · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1672
Rot-Weiß Essen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1750
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Preußen Münster: balanced profile (how Thomas Wörle plays) · Rot-Weiß Essen: balanced profile (how Uwe Koschinat plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.