League Two · Regular Season - 8
Port Vale vs Northampton
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Port Vale host Northampton on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Port Vale 47%, draw 28%, Northampton 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Port Vale €365K, Northampton €308K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Port Vale goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–18%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Port Vale 1702 · Northampton 1633
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Port Vale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1662
Northampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1764
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Port Vale
19th in League Two · 15 pts from 12
- 7 NovWScunthorpe England FA Cup1661
- 31 OctWRochdale England League Two1705
- 27 OctWManchester City U21 England EFL Trophy1652
- 24 OctLYork England League Two1641
- 20 OctDGillingham England League Two1707
Northampton
21st in League Two · 14 pts from 13
- 7 NovLYork England FA Cup1645
- 3 NovLOldham England League Two1639
- 31 OctDAccrington ST England League Two1662
- 24 OctWColchester England League Two1616
- 20 OctLTranmere England League Two1604
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 15 /12 | 66.0 | <1% | 21% | 2% | 4th |
| Northampton | 14 /13 | 57.1 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Port Vale: balanced profile (how J. Brady plays) · Northampton: direct (how Chris Hogg plays)