League Two · Regular Season - 10
Port Vale 1–0 Grimsby
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent
Port ValeTeam 1657GrimsbyTeam 1645- Kyle Dempsey 45'
We gave Port Vale 42% to win: they did.
- George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 1693 +1242'Port Vale:George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 1693 +12
- Kyle Dempsey 1750 +26 assist Jaheim·Headley 1712 +1445'Port Vale:Kyle Dempsey 1750 +26 assist Jaheim·Headley 1712 +14
- 45+1'Finn Cartwright 1514 0Grimsby:Finn Cartwright 1514 0
- 70'Jamie Walker 1550 −5 for Finn Cartwright 1514 0Grimsby:Jamie Walker 1550 −5 for Finn Cartwright 1514 0
- 70'Iwan Morgan 1662 0 for Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor 1371 −2Grimsby:Iwan Morgan 1662 0 for Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor 1371 −2
- Rhys Walters 1701 −5* for George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 1693 +1271'Port Vale:Rhys Walters 1701 −5* for George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 1693 +12
- Oliver Lynch 1538 +6 for Max Watters 1684 +1271'Port Vale:Oliver Lynch 1538 +6 for Max Watters 1684 +12
- Ben Waine 1727 −6* for Onel Hernández 1597 +1579'Port Vale:Ben Waine 1727 −6* for Onel Hernández 1597 +15
- George Byers 1682 −9* for Kyle Dempsey 1750 +2684'Port Vale:George Byers 1682 −9* for Kyle Dempsey 1750 +26
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 29%(Port Vale · draw · Grimsby)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Port Vale €327K, Grimsby €251K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Port Vale
23rd in League Two · 5 pts from 7
- 6 OctWMansfield Town England EFL Trophy1750
- 22 SepDChesterfield England EFL Trophy1676
- 19 SepLWalsall England League Two1685
- 12 SepWExeter City England League Two1682
- 5 SepLSalford City England League Two1677
Grimsby
9th in League Two · 13 pts from 9
- 6 OctDBurton Albion England EFL Trophy1468
- 3 OctLShrewsbury England League Two1612
- 26 SepLNewport County England League Two1724
- 22 SepLNotts County England EFL Trophy1492
- 19 SepWCrawley Town England League Two1732
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 5 /7 | 59.9 | <1% | 5% | 7% | 10th |
| Grimsby | 13 /9 | 65.1 | 2% | 18% | 2% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Port Vale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1664
Grimsby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1749
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Port Vale: balanced profile (how Jonathan Edmund Alexander Brady plays) · Grimsby: balanced profile (how David John Artell plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.