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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent

Port Vale crestPort ValeTeam 1628
1–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Chesterfield crestChesterfieldTeam 1737

Match story

Port Vale · draw · Chesterfield

Before kick-off: 32% · 29% · 38%

Live chances: Port Vale 97%, draw 2%, Chesterfield 0% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 29%, Chesterfield 38%3' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%4' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%5' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%6' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%7' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%8' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%9' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%10' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%11' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 38%12' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%13' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%14' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%16' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%17' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%18' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 31%, Chesterfield 37%19' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 37%20' · 0–0 · Port Vale 32%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 37%21' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 37%22' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 36%23' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 36%24' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 32%, Chesterfield 36%25' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 33%, Chesterfield 36%26' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 33%, Chesterfield 36%27' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 33%, Chesterfield 36%28' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 33%, Chesterfield 36%29' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 33%, Chesterfield 36%31' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 34%, Chesterfield 35%32' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 34%, Chesterfield 35%33' · 0–0 · Port Vale 31%, draw 34%, Chesterfield 35%34' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 34%, Chesterfield 35%35' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 35%, Chesterfield 35%36' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 35%, Chesterfield 35%37' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 35%, Chesterfield 35%38' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 35%, Chesterfield 34%39' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 36%, Chesterfield 34%40' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 36%, Chesterfield 34%41' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 36%, Chesterfield 34%42' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 37%, Chesterfield 34%43' · 0–0 · Port Vale 30%, draw 37%, Chesterfield 34%45' · 0–0 · Port Vale 29%, draw 37%, Chesterfield 33%45+1' · 1–0 · Port Vale 64%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 11%45+2' · 1–0 · Port Vale 64%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 11%45+3' · 1–0 · Port Vale 65%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 11%HT · 1–0 · Port Vale 65%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 11%46' · 1–0 · Port Vale 65%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 11%47' · 1–0 · Port Vale 65%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 10%48' · 1–0 · Port Vale 65%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 10%49' · 1–0 · Port Vale 66%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 10%50' · 1–0 · Port Vale 66%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 10%51' · 1–0 · Port Vale 66%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 10%52' · 1–0 · Port Vale 66%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 9%53' · 1–0 · Port Vale 67%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 9%54' · 1–0 · Port Vale 67%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 9%55' · 1–0 · Port Vale 68%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 9%56' · 1–0 · Port Vale 68%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 8%57' · 1–0 · Port Vale 68%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 8%58' · 1–0 · Port Vale 69%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 8%59' · 1–0 · Port Vale 69%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 7%60' · 1–0 · Port Vale 70%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 7%61' · 1–0 · Port Vale 70%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 7%62' · 1–0 · Port Vale 70%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 7%63' · 1–0 · Port Vale 71%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 6%64' · 1–0 · Port Vale 71%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 6%65' · 1–0 · Port Vale 72%, draw 22%, Chesterfield 6%66' · 1–0 · Port Vale 72%, draw 22%, Chesterfield 6%68' · 1–0 · Port Vale 73%, draw 22%, Chesterfield 5%69' · 1–0 · Port Vale 74%, draw 21%, Chesterfield 5%70' · 1–0 · Port Vale 74%, draw 21%, Chesterfield 5%71' · 1–0 · Port Vale 75%, draw 21%, Chesterfield 4%72' · 1–0 · Port Vale 75%, draw 21%, Chesterfield 4%73' · 1–0 · Port Vale 76%, draw 20%, Chesterfield 4%74' · 1–0 · Port Vale 76%, draw 20%, Chesterfield 4%75' · 1–0 · Port Vale 77%, draw 19%, Chesterfield 4%76' · 1–0 · Port Vale 78%, draw 19%, Chesterfield 3%77' · 1–0 · Port Vale 78%, draw 19%, Chesterfield 3%78' · 1–0 · Port Vale 79%, draw 18%, Chesterfield 3%79' · 1–0 · Port Vale 80%, draw 18%, Chesterfield 3%80' · 1–0 · Port Vale 81%, draw 17%, Chesterfield 2%81' · 1–0 · Port Vale 81%, draw 16%, Chesterfield 2%82' · 1–0 · Port Vale 82%, draw 16%, Chesterfield 2%83' · 1–0 · Port Vale 83%, draw 15%, Chesterfield 2%84' · 1–0 · Port Vale 84%, draw 14%, Chesterfield 2%85' · 1–0 · Port Vale 85%, draw 14%, Chesterfield 1%86' · 1–0 · Port Vale 86%, draw 13%, Chesterfield 1%87' · 1–0 · Port Vale 87%, draw 12%, Chesterfield 1%88' · 1–0 · Port Vale 88%, draw 11%, Chesterfield 1%89' · 1–0 · Port Vale 89%, draw 10%, Chesterfield 1%90' · 1–0 · Port Vale 90%, draw 9%, Chesterfield 1%90+1' · 1–0 · Port Vale 92%, draw 8%, Chesterfield 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Port Vale 93%, draw 7%, Chesterfield 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Port Vale 94%, draw 5%, Chesterfield 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Port Vale 96%, draw 4%, Chesterfield 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Port Vale 97%, draw 2%, Chesterfield 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 97% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Chesterfield 38% to win: Port Vale won.

  1. 15'Port Vale:Cameron Humphreys 1734 +14
  2. 30'Port Vale:Jordan Gabriel 1729 +14
  3. 33'Chesterfield:Josh Koroma 1753 −7 for Joel Randall 1796 −5
  4. 45'Port Vale:Onel Hernández 1640 +43
  5. 54'Chesterfield:Ryan Stirk 1785 −11
  6. 59'Port Vale:Jaheim·Headley 1725 +13
  7. 64'Chesterfield:Lewis Gordon 1805 −13
  8. 65'Port Vale:Oliver Lynch 1560 +22 for Max Watters 1696 +12
  9. 66'Port Vale:Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales 1066 +29 for Onel Hernández 1640 +43
  10. 69'Port Vale:Jon Edmund Alexander Brady
  11. 73'Port Vale:George Byers 1683 +1 for George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 1707 +14
  12. 73'Port Vale:Kyle John 1719 +3 for Jaheim·Headley 1725 +13
  13. 79'Port Vale:Rhys Walters 1703 +2 for Kyle Dempsey 1758 +8
  14. 79'Chesterfield:Tom Pearce 1700 −1 for Lewis Gordon 1805 −13
  15. 79'Chesterfield:Liam Mandeville 1721 −3 for Ryan Stirk 1785 −11
  16. 80'Chesterfield:Kiano Dyer 1297 0 for Louie Marsh 1715 −5
  17. 84'Chesterfield:Will Grigg 1373 −7 for Dilan Markanday 1811 −14

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations4-2-3-1
GM. Maroši1622+76
DC. Humphreys1734+14
DJ. Moon1698+18
DC. Hall1671+15
MJ. Lawrence-Gabriel1729+14
MK. Dempsey1758+8
MG. Hall1707+14
MB. Garrity1697+16
MJ. Headley1725+13
FM. Watters1696+12
FO. Hernández1640+43
CJ. Brady1747+27
GR. Boot1740−9
DR. Hutton1698−5
DK. McFadzean1549−14
DJ. Simpson1791−20
DL. Gordon1805−13
MG. McEachran1728−7
MR. Stirk1785−11
MD. Markanday1811−14
ML. Marsh1715−5
MJ. Randall1796−5
FL. Bonis1805−15
CP. Cook1772−22
Before kick-off: 32% · 29% · 38%(Port Vale · draw · Chesterfield)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Port Vale €311K, Chesterfield €389K.
  • Home advantage made Port Vale the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Port Vale

22nd in League Two · 8 pts from 8

  • 10 OctWGrimsby 1667
  • 6 OctWMansfield Town 1750
  • 22 SepDChesterfield 1676
  • 19 SepLWalsall 1685
  • 12 SepWExeter City 1682

Chesterfield

7th in League Two · 15 pts from 10

  • 10 OctDCrawley Town 1766
  • 3 OctWTranmere 1756
  • 26 SepLCheltenham 1766
  • 22 SepDPort Vale 1566
  • 19 SepWYork 1745

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Port Vale8 /862.2<1%8%4%11th
Chesterfield15 /1070.74%38%<1%4th
Port Vale
Chesterfield

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Hall
C. Hall

Port Vale · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1655

R. Stirk
R. Stirk

Chesterfield · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1796

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Jonathan Edmund Alexander Brady

Coach DNA: direct

Paul Anthony Cook

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Port Vale: balanced profile (how Jonathan Edmund Alexander Brady plays) · Chesterfield: possession-based · low-block (how Paul Anthony Cook plays)