League Two · Regular Season - 15
Port Vale vs Accrington ST
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Port Vale host Accrington ST on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Port Vale 53%, draw 26%, Accrington ST 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Port Vale €315K, Accrington ST €168K.
- Style contrast in discipline (League Two): Port Vale rank #3 of 25, Accrington ST #25.
- All 11 of Port Vale's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Accrington ST are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Port Vale goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Port Vale 1692 · Accrington ST 1550
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Port Vale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1669
Accrington ST · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1589
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Port Vale
23rd in League Two · 12 pts from 11
- 27 OctWManchester City U21 England EFL Trophy1648
- 24 OctLYork England League Two1642
- 20 OctDGillingham England League Two1695
- 17 OctWChesterfield England League Two1683
- 10 OctWGrimsby England League Two1667
Accrington ST
9th in League Two · 18 pts from 13
- 24 OctWRochdale England League Two1529
- 20 OctDYork England League Two1525
- 17 OctWGillingham England League Two1484
- 10 OctDOldham England League Two1463
- 6 OctDSalford City England EFL Trophy1438
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 12 /11 | 63.9 | <1% | 13% | 3% | 7th |
| Accrington ST | 18 /13 | 55.1 | 0% | 1% | 23% | 23rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Port Vale: balanced profile (how J. Brady plays) · Accrington ST: direct (how John Doolan plays)