Serie B · Regular Season - 35
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC
Ponte Preta host Fortaleza EC on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ponte Preta 18%, draw 24%, Fortaleza EC 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ponte Preta €193K, Fortaleza EC €809K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie B matchday 35: 417 points.
- Serie B: Lucas Gazal is the highest-rated defender (1917).
- Ponte Preta's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.6 over 180 days.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ponte Preta goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–37%
- 0–06%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Ponte Preta 1376 · Fortaleza EC 1793
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ponte Preta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.1 (Average) · Elo 1389
Fortaleza EC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1887
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ponte Preta
20th in Serie B · 14 pts from 34
- 16 OctDAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1357
- 12 OctLNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1381
- 7 OctLJuventude Brazil Serie B1384
- 3 OctLCuiaba Brazil Serie B1406
- 29 SepLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1438
Fortaleza EC
4th in Serie B · 60 pts from 34
- 16 OctWSport Recife Brazil Serie B1752
- 12 OctDCRB Brazil Serie B1709
- 7 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1767
- 3 OctDNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1777
- 27 SepDAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1800
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 14 /34 | 17.0 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Fortaleza EC | 60 /34 | 66.8 | 19% | 83% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ponte Preta: balanced profile (how Gilson Kleina plays) · Fortaleza EC: direct (how Paulo Autuori de Mello plays)