Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin host Radomiak Radom on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Pogon Szczecin 65%, draw 21%, Radomiak Radom 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Pogon Szczecin €1.2M, Radomiak Radom €499K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ekstraklasa matchday 12: 263 points.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Ekstraklasa average of 28% this round.
- Ekstraklasa: V. Cojocaru is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2091).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Ekstraklasa): Pogon Szczecin rank #19 of 19, Radomiak Radom #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Pogon Szczecin goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Pogon Szczecin 1864 · Radomiak Radom 1601
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Pogon Szczecin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2091
Radomiak Radom · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1623
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Pogon Szczecin
4th in Ekstraklasa · 21 pts from 10
- 17 OctWGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1883
- 11 OctWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1857
- 20 SepWPiast Gliwice Ekstraklasa1818
- 13 SepWWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1764
- 7 SepDWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1766
Radomiak Radom
16th in Ekstraklasa · 8 pts from 10
- 12 OctLMotor Lublin Ekstraklasa1589
- 20 SepLLech Poznan Ekstraklasa1570
- 14 SepLPiast Gliwice Ekstraklasa1586
- 5 SepDWidzew Łódź Ekstraklasa1586
- 29 AugWCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1547
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 21 /10 | 59.7 | 8% | 79% | 0% | 3rd |
| Radomiak Radom | 8 /10 | 33.4 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Pogon Szczecin: balanced profile (how Óscar García Junyent plays) · Radomiak Radom: direct (how Rafał Grzyb plays)