Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 34
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Subaru Park, Philadelphia
Philadelphia Union host Toronto FC on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Philadelphia Union 67%, draw 20%, Toronto FC 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Philadelphia Union €3.3M, Toronto FC €1.2M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of MLS matchday 34: 268 points.
- Draw chance 20%, below the MLS average of 27% this round.
- Style contrast in chance creation (MLS): Philadelphia Union rank #2 of 30, Toronto FC #29.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Philadelphia Union goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Philadelphia Union 2075 · Toronto FC 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Philadelphia Union · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2121
Toronto FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1929
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Philadelphia Union
6th in MLS · 46 pts from 30
- 17 OctDCharlotte MLS2144
- 15 OctWChicago Fire MLS2097
- 10 OctWReal Salt Lake MLS2112
- 26 SepWOrlando City SC MLS2017
- 20 SepWSporting Kansas City MLS2075
Toronto FC
10th in MLS · 36 pts from 30
- 17 OctWNew York Red Bulls MLS1775
- 14 OctDOrlando City SC MLS1813
- 10 OctWCF Montreal MLS1810
- 27 SepLNashville SC MLS1766
- 20 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1786
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 46 /30 | 52.6 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10th |
| Toronto FC | 36 /30 | 39.7 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 22nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Philadelphia Union: direct · high-pressing (how Ryan Richter plays) · Toronto FC: balanced profile (how R. Fraser plays)