League One · Regular Season - 14
Peterborough vs Luton
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough
Peterborough host Luton on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Peterborough 36%, draw 29%, Luton 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Peterborough €485K, Luton €604K.
- Home advantage makes Peterborough the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (League One): Peterborough rank #23 of 24, Luton #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Peterborough goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Peterborough 1775 · Luton 1856
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Peterborough · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1858
Luton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1888
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Peterborough
19th in League One · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctDBurton Albion England League One1733
- 10 OctWLeicester England League One1717
- 6 OctWIpswich Town U21 England EFL Trophy1707
- 26 SepLStockport County England League One1735
- 22 SepWColchester England EFL Trophy1721
Luton
16th in League One · 11 pts from 9
- 17 OctLMilton Keynes Dons England League One1824
- 10 OctWWycombe England League One1783
- 3 OctDColchester England EFL Trophy1729
- 22 SepWIpswich Town U21 England EFL Trophy1767
- 19 SepLBradford England League One1807
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 9 /10 | 55.4 | <1% | 1% | 16% | 18th |
| Luton | 11 /9 | 65.7 | 3% | 18% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Peterborough: possession-based (how Robert William Savage plays) · Luton: balanced profile (how Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere plays)