League One · Regular Season - 11
Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · ABAX Stadium, Peterborough
PeterboroughTeam 1786Burton AlbionTeam 1754- Owura Edwards 2'
- Matthew Garbett 90+6'
- Charlie Webster 30'
- Gbemi Arubi 89'
We gave Peterborough 45% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Owura Edwards – assist Harry Leonard –2'Peterborough:Owura Edwards – assist Harry Leonard –
- 30'Charlie Webster – assist Kgagelo Chauke –Burton Albion:Charlie Webster – assist Kgagelo Chauke –
- 45'Gbemi Arubi – for Matthew Dennis –Burton Albion:Gbemi Arubi – for Matthew Dennis –
- 60'Sulyman Krubally – for F. Delap –Burton Albion:Sulyman Krubally – for F. Delap –
- Brandon·Singh Khela – for Harry Ashfield –66'Peterborough:Brandon·Singh Khela – for Harry Ashfield –
- Matthew Garbett – for Owura Edwards –69'Peterborough:Matthew Garbett – for Owura Edwards –
- Carl Johnston –77'Peterborough:Carl Johnston –
- 78'Raphael Borges Rodrigues –Burton Albion:Raphael Borges Rodrigues –
- Brandon·Singh Khela –79'Peterborough:Brandon·Singh Khela –
- D. Ormerod for Harry Leonard –81'Peterborough:D. Ormerod for Harry Leonard –
- Vernon Masara – for Bolu Shofowoke –82'Peterborough:Vernon Masara – for Bolu Shofowoke –
- 82'Emeka Adeile – for Raphael Borges Rodrigues –Burton Albion:Emeka Adeile – for Raphael Borges Rodrigues –
- 82'M. O’Mahony – for Caylon VickersBurton Albion:M. O’Mahony – for Caylon Vickers
- 89'Gbemi Arubi –Burton Albion:Gbemi Arubi –
- Matthew Garbett –90+6'Peterborough:Matthew Garbett –
Before kick-off (provisional): 45% · 28% · 27%(Peterborough · draw · Burton Albion)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Peterborough €483K, Burton Albion €471K.
- Style contrast in possession (League One): Peterborough ranked #3 of 24, Burton Albion #22.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Peterborough
20th in League One · 8 pts from 9
- 10 OctWLeicester England League One1717
- 6 OctWIpswich Town U21 England EFL Trophy1707
- 26 SepLStockport County England League One1735
- 22 SepWColchester England EFL Trophy1721
- 19 SepLDoncaster England League One1773
Burton Albion
10th in League One · 12 pts from 10
- 10 OctLDoncaster England League One1816
- 6 OctDGrimsby England EFL Trophy1445
- 3 OctLHuddersfield England League One1838
- 26 SepWPlymouth England League One1806
- 22 SepDNottingham Forest U21 England EFL Trophy1578
Season outlook
From the League One simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 8 /9 | 57.1 | <1% | 3% | 12% | 20th |
| Burton Albion | 12 /10 | 58.5 | <1% | 4% | 10% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Peterborough · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1861
Burton Albion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1799
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Peterborough: possession-based (how Luke Williams plays) · Burton Albion: direct (how Gary David Bowyer plays)