Primera División · Clausura - 13
Penarol vs Wanderers
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC
Penarol host Wanderers on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Penarol 59%, draw 24%, Wanderers 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Penarol €717K, Wanderers €287K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Penarol goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Penarol 1701 · Wanderers 1484
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Penarol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Good) · Elo 1642
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Penarol
1st in Primera División - Apertura · 63 pts from 33
- 18 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1708
- 10 OctDProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1716
- 4 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1706
- 30 SepDAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1724
- 26 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1704
Wanderers
7th in Primera División - Apertura · 50 pts from 33
- 17 OctLRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1485
- 10 OctLBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1499
- 4 OctWCerro Uruguay Primera Division1491
- 20 SepDDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1501
- 12 SepDClub Nacional Uruguay Primera Division1502
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 142 /70 | 143.5 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Wanderers | 81 /70 | 82.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –