Primera División · Clausura - 10
Penarol 1–1 Progreso
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
PenarolTeam 1687ProgresoTeam 1438- Abel Hernández 90+2'
- nahuel lopez 26'
We gave Penarol 62% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 5'hernan carroso 1374 for Marco Antonio Saravia 1692 +5Progreso:hernan carroso 1374 for Marco Antonio Saravia 1692 +5
- 26'nahuel lopez 1412 +17Progreso:nahuel lopez 1412 +17
- Abel Hernández 1404 for Roberto Fernández 1716 −12*46'Penarol:Abel Hernández 1404 for Roberto Fernández 1716 −12*
- Ignacio alegre 1459 for nahuel herrera 1746 −446'Penarol:Ignacio alegre 1459 for nahuel herrera 1746 −4
- Cristian Jaime 1688 −258'Penarol:Cristian Jaime 1688 −2
- eduardo darias 1686 for leandro umpierrez 1705 −361'Penarol:eduardo darias 1686 for leandro umpierrez 1705 −3
- 70'Gastón Silva 1498 for Ayrton Cougo 1499 +11Progreso:Gastón Silva 1498 for Ayrton Cougo 1499 +11
- 70'Matteo copelotti 1260 for Maximiliano Juambeltz 1555 +11Progreso:Matteo copelotti 1260 for Maximiliano Juambeltz 1555 +11
- Lucas Hernández 1430 for Thiago Espinosa 1591 071'Penarol:Lucas Hernández 1430 for Thiago Espinosa 1591 0
- eduardo darias 168676'Penarol:eduardo darias 1686
- Franco González 1493 for Cristian Jaime 1688 −278'Penarol:Franco González 1493 for Cristian Jaime 1688 −2
- 83'Santino Bruschi 1228 for Agustín Ocampo 1576 +9Progreso:Santino Bruschi 1228 for Agustín Ocampo 1576 +9
- 83'Agustin Codagnone 1175 for Facundo De Leon 1374 +11*Progreso:Agustin Codagnone 1175 for Facundo De Leon 1374 +11*
- Abel Hernández 140490+2'Penarol:Abel Hernández 1404
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 62% · 23% · 16%(Penarol · draw · Progreso)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Penarol €711K, Progreso €305K.
- Penarol were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Penarol
1st in Primera División - Apertura · 62 pts from 31
- 4 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1706
- 30 SepDAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1724
- 26 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1704
- 19 SepWCerro Uruguay Primera Division1692
- 5 SepWDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1685
Progreso
16th in Primera División - Apertura · 28 pts from 31
- 3 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1487
- 26 SepWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1444
- 19 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1382
- 13 SepLCerro Uruguay Primera Division1375
- 29 AugWDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1388
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 141 /68 | 144.5 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Progreso | 67 /68 | 69.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Penarol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1736
Progreso · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.7 (Poor) · Elo 1544
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.