Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 7
Penafiel 1–2 AVS
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
PenafielTeam 1507AVSTeam 1514We gave Penafiel 41% to win: AVS won.
Before kick-off (provisional): 41% · 29% · 30%(Penafiel · draw · AVS)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Penafiel €274K, AVS €308K.
- Home advantage made Penafiel the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Segunda Liga): Penafiel ranked #2 of 14, AVS #13.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Penafiel
2nd in Segunda Liga · 13 pts from 6
- 12 SepWFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21456
- 5 SepWAcademica Liga Portugal 21481
- 30 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21477
- 8 AugLPortimonense Liga Portugal 21497
- 17 MayLPacos Ferreira Liga Portugal 21498
AVS
12th in Segunda Liga · 6 pts from 6
- 13 SepDFarense Liga Portugal 21452
- 7 SepLLusitânia Lourosa Liga Portugal 21513
- 30 AugWFeirense Liga Portugal 21468
- 17 AugDFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21482
- 9 AugLSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21536
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 13 /6 | 51.2 | 7% | 33% | 2% | 5th |
| AVS | 6 /6 | 44.5 | 1% | 8% | 12% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AVS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1713
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Penafiel: balanced profile (how José Manuel Aira Lindoso plays) · AVS: direct (how Sergio Fonseca plays)