Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 12
PAU vs Nantes
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Nouste Camp, Pau
PAU host Nantes on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: PAU 27%, draw 28%, Nantes 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: PAU €361K, Nantes €1.9M.
- Style contrast in attacking (Ligue 2): PAU rank #2 of 19, Nantes #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. PAU goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: PAU 1596 · Nantes 1784
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
PAU · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1625
Nantes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1751
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
PAU
6th in Ligue 2 · 14 pts from 9
- 16 OctWGuingamp France Ligue 21575
- 9 OctWLaval France Ligue 21542
- 18 SepWDunkerque France Ligue 21503
- 11 SepLMontpellier France Ligue 21494
- 4 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21519
Nantes
14th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLDunkerque France Ligue 21793
- 10 OctDReims France Ligue 21809
- 19 SepWBoulogne France Ligue 21793
- 12 SepLSochaux France Ligue 21814
- 7 SepWNancy France Ligue 21778
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 14 /9 | 44.9 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 10th |
| Nantes | 8 /9 | 50.2 | 1% | 23% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-block
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
PAU: balanced profile (how Thierry Debès plays) · Nantes: direct (how Grégory Poirier plays)