Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 8
PAU 3–2 Laval
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Nouste Camp, Pau
PAUTeam 1554LavalTeam 1505We gave PAU 45% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 45% · 28% · 27%(PAU · draw · Laval)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the expected XI: PAU €335K, Laval €277K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Ligue 2): PAU ranked #2 of 18, Laval #16.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
PAU
10th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 7
- 18 SepWDunkerque France Ligue 21503
- 11 SepLMontpellier France Ligue 21494
- 4 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21519
- 28 AugDRodez France Ligue 21574
- 21 AugLNancy France Ligue 21587
Laval
18th in Ligue 2 · 5 pts from 7
- 18 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21458
- 11 SepLDijon France Ligue 21509
- 4 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21497
- 28 AugLGrenoble France Ligue 21510
- 22 AugDMetz France Ligue 21488
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 8 /7 | 39.8 | 0% | 2% | 22% | 13th |
| Laval | 5 /7 | 34.2 | 0% | <1% | 56% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
PAU · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1629
Laval · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1649
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-block
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
PAU: balanced profile (how Thierry Debès plays) · Laval: balanced profile (how David Vignes plays)