Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 10
PAU vs Grenoble
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Nouste Camp, Pau
PAU host Grenoble on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: PAU 42%, draw 29%, Grenoble 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: PAU €404K, Grenoble €399K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. PAU goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: PAU 1599 · Grenoble 1586
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
PAU · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1625
Grenoble · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1595
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
PAU
6th in Ligue 2 · 14 pts from 9
- 16 OctWGuingamp France Ligue 21575
- 9 OctWLaval France Ligue 21542
- 18 SepWDunkerque France Ligue 21503
- 11 SepLMontpellier France Ligue 21494
- 4 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21519
Grenoble
15th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 9
- 16 OctLBoulogne France Ligue 21629
- 9 OctLMontpellier France Ligue 21621
- 18 SepDClermont Foot France Ligue 21593
- 11 SepWRodez France Ligue 21558
- 4 SepLAnnecy France Ligue 21565
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 14 /9 | 44.9 | <1% | 6% | 6% | 10th |
| Grenoble | 8 /9 | 39.3 | 0% | 1% | 24% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-block
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
PAU: balanced profile (how Thierry Debès plays) · Grenoble: balanced profile (how Olivier Frapolli plays)