Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain host Lyon on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Paris Saint Germain 72%, draw 18%, Lyon 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Paris Saint Germain €56.8M, Lyon €11.8M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 8: 370 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Ligue 1 average of 25% this round.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2457).
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Paris Saint Germain goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–08%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Paris Saint Germain 2488 · Lyon 2118
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2598
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2231
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris Saint Germain
2nd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 12416
- 14 OctWManchester City UEFA Champions League2466
- 10 OctWLe Mans Ligue 12381
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
- 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12476
Lyon
1st in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctWNice Ligue 12075
- 15 OctWCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League2121
- 9 OctLLens Ligue 12146
- 19 SepWRennes Ligue 12110
- 16 SepWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2040
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 14 /7 | 80.9 | 98% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Lyon | 14 /7 | 59.3 | 1% | 55% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays) · Lyon: possession-based (how Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues Fonseca plays)