Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint GermainTeam 2454Le MansTeam 1726- Lucas Beraldo 19' (pen)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 61'
- Maghnes Akliouche 68'
- Louis Mafouta 54'
We gave Paris Saint Germain 92% to win: they did.
- Lucas Beraldo 2374 −4* (pen.)19'Paris Saint Germain:Lucas Beraldo 2374 −4* (pen.)
- 45'Dame Gueye 1668 −10* for Habib Diallo 1720 −10*Le Mans:Dame Gueye 1668 −10* for Habib Diallo 1720 −10*
- 47'Dame Gueye 1668 −10*Le Mans:Dame Gueye 1668 −10*
- 54'Louis Mafouta 1619 −11* assist Lucas Calodat 1874 −9*Le Mans:Louis Mafouta 1619 −11* assist Lucas Calodat 1874 −9*
- Warren Zaire-Emery 2446 −6* for João Neves 2561 +158'Paris Saint Germain:Warren Zaire-Emery 2446 −6* for João Neves 2561 +1
- Fabián Ruiz 2452 −9* for Dro Fernández 2158 −5*58'Paris Saint Germain:Fabián Ruiz 2452 −9* for Dro Fernández 2158 −5*
- Vitinha 2540 +1 for Lucas Beraldo 2374 −4*59'Paris Saint Germain:Vitinha 2540 +1 for Lucas Beraldo 2374 −4*
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2454 +2 for Mika Godts 2251 +259'Paris Saint Germain:Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2454 +2 for Mika Godts 2251 +2
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2454 +261'Paris Saint Germain:Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2454 +2
- 65'Louis Mafouta 1619 −11*Le Mans:Louis Mafouta 1619 −11*
- 66'Bilal Brahimi 1774 −8* for Jean Vercruysse 1447 −8*Le Mans:Bilal Brahimi 1774 −8* for Jean Vercruysse 1447 −8*
- Maghnes Akliouche 2275 +7 assist Warren Zaire-Emery 2446 −6*68'Paris Saint Germain:Maghnes Akliouche 2275 +7 assist Warren Zaire-Emery 2446 −6*
- Désiré Doue 2516 +1 for Achraf Hakimi 2476 −7*72'Paris Saint Germain:Désiré Doue 2516 +1 for Achraf Hakimi 2476 −7*
- 72'William Harhouz 1314 −8* for Louis Mafouta 1619 −11*Le Mans:William Harhouz 1314 −8* for Louis Mafouta 1619 −11*
- 72'Antoine Rabillard 1730 −10* for Alexandre Lauray 1780 −9*Le Mans:Antoine Rabillard 1730 −10* for Alexandre Lauray 1780 −9*
- 77'Yasser Larouci 1904 −8* for Lucas Calodat 1874 −9*Le Mans:Yasser Larouci 1904 −8* for Lucas Calodat 1874 −9*
- 90+2'Rayan Bamba 1790 −8*Le Mans:Rayan Bamba 1790 −8*
- 90+2'Bilal Brahimi 1774 −8*Le Mans:Bilal Brahimi 1774 −8*
- Désiré Doue 2516 +1 (penalty missed)90+3'Paris Saint Germain:Désiré Doue 2516 +1 (penalty missed)
- 90+3'Noa Boissé 1690 −8*Le Mans:Noa Boissé 1690 −8*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 92% · 6% · 2%(Paris Saint Germain · draw · Le Mans)
Our most likely score was 4–0 (10%); the result 3–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Paris Saint Germain €37.0M, Le Mans €815K.
- Paris Saint Germain were without 1 expected starter: O. Dembélé (2547).
- Le Mans were without 1 expected starter: A. Bourabaa (1698).
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 6: 717 points.
- Draw chance was 6%, below the Ligue 1 average of 25% this round.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris Saint Germain
6th in Ligue 1 · 8 pts from 5
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
- 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12476
- 9 SepWSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League2407
- 4 SepLMonaco Ligue 12446
- 28 AugDLille Ligue 12441
Le Mans
10th in Ligue 1 · 6 pts from 5
- 19 SepWLorient Ligue 11700
- 13 SepDLens Ligue 11656
- 5 SepDNice Ligue 11692
- 30 AugLRennes Ligue 11729
- 22 AugDStade Brestois 29 Ligue 11750
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 8 /5 | 79.4 | 94% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Le Mans | 6 /5 | 31.1 | 0% | 0% | 54% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2561
Le Mans · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1846
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays) · Le Mans: balanced profile (how Patrick Videira plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.