Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 10
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain host Estac Troyes on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Paris Saint Germain 92%, draw 6%, Estac Troyes 2%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Paris Saint Germain €52.9M, Estac Troyes €1.4M.
- Draw chance 6%, below the Ligue 1 average of 24% this round.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2474).
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Paris Saint Germain goals first.
- 4–010%
- 3–010%
- 5–09%
- 4–17%
- 3–17%
- 2–07%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com4–0expected 1.3 pts
voetbalpoules.nl4–0expected 6.1 pts
Team Elo: Paris Saint Germain 2497 · Estac Troyes 1770
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2627
Estac Troyes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1753
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris Saint Germain
2nd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 20 OctWBarcelona UEFA Champions League2510
- 17 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 12416
- 14 OctWManchester City UEFA Champions League2466
- 10 OctWLe Mans Ligue 12381
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
Estac Troyes
17th in Ligue 1 · 4 pts from 7
- 17 OctLLens Ligue 11797
- 11 OctLMarseille Ligue 11811
- 19 SepLAngers Ligue 11782
- 13 SepLLille Ligue 11829
- 6 SepLStrasbourg Ligue 11841
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 14 /7 | 81.4 | 97% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Estac Troyes | 4 /7 | 28.7 | 0% | 0% | 66% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays) · Estac Troyes: dribble-heavy (how Stéphane Dumont plays)