Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Paris FC vs Monaco
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino
Paris FC host Monaco on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Paris FC 38%, draw 29%, Monaco 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Paris FC €6.0M, Monaco €10.0M.
- Home advantage makes Paris FC the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Paris FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Paris FC 2096 · Monaco 2132
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2205
Monaco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2274
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris FC
3rd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctWRennes Ligue 12099
- 10 OctLLorient Ligue 12111
- 19 SepWStrasbourg Ligue 12092
- 12 SepDLyon Ligue 12086
- 6 SepWMarseille Ligue 12051
Monaco
5th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctLLorient Ligue 12176
- 15 OctWCSKA Sofia UEFA Conference League2103
- 10 OctDToulouse Ligue 12127
- 18 SepWLens Ligue 12130
- 12 SepDStrasbourg Ligue 12135
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 14 /7 | 58.2 | <1% | 47% | 0% | 5th |
| Monaco | 14 /7 | 61.3 | 1% | 68% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris FC: possession-based (how Liam James Rosenior plays) · Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís Kasmirski plays)