Super League 1 · Regular Season - 7
Panathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Athens
PanathinaikosTeam 2035Asteras TripolisTeam 1680- Stefan de Vrij 27'
- Imrân Louza 31'
- Cyriel Dessers 62'
- Davide Calabria 72'
- Andrews Tetteh 83'
We gave Panathinaikos 71% to win: they did.
- Andrews Tetteh 2091 +16 for Azzedine Ounahi 2145 +119'Panathinaikos:Andrews Tetteh 2091 +16 for Azzedine Ounahi 2145 +1
- Stefan de Vrij 2068 +15 assist Kings Kangwa 2062 +1627'Panathinaikos:Stefan de Vrij 2068 +15 assist Kings Kangwa 2062 +16
- Imrân Louza 2037 +2331'Panathinaikos:Imrân Louza 2037 +23
- Vicente Taborda 2020 +4 for Levi García 1914 +545'Panathinaikos:Vicente Taborda 2020 +4 for Levi García 1914 +5
- 45'Antonis Papakanellos 1623 0 for Kalvin Ketu 1719 −1Asteras Tripolis:Antonis Papakanellos 1623 0 for Kalvin Ketu 1719 −1
- 60'Antonis Papakanellos 1623 0 assist Konstantinos Chrysopoulos 1587 0Asteras Tripolis:Antonis Papakanellos 1623 0 assist Konstantinos Chrysopoulos 1587 0
- 61'Dimitrios Kourbelis 1947 −8 for Eder González 1739 −2Asteras Tripolis:Dimitrios Kourbelis 1947 −8 for Eder González 1739 −2
- 61'Giannis Bouzoukis 1573 −1 for Julián Chicco 1634 −1Asteras Tripolis:Giannis Bouzoukis 1573 −1 for Julián Chicco 1634 −1
- Cyriel Dessers 1952 +19 assist Imrân Louza 2037 +2362'Panathinaikos:Cyriel Dessers 1952 +19 assist Imrân Louza 2037 +23
- Elmin Rastoder 1844 +5 for Kings Kangwa 2062 +1668'Panathinaikos:Elmin Rastoder 1844 +5 for Kings Kangwa 2062 +16
- Pedro Chirivella 1923 −2* for Cyriel Dessers 1952 +1968'Panathinaikos:Pedro Chirivella 1923 −2* for Cyriel Dessers 1952 +19
- 71'Franco Orozco 1569 −8* for Dimitrios Laskaris 1520 0Asteras Tripolis:Franco Orozco 1569 −8* for Dimitrios Laskaris 1520 0
- Davide Calabria 2150 +14 assist Pedro Chirivella 1923 −2*72'Panathinaikos:Davide Calabria 2150 +14 assist Pedro Chirivella 1923 −2*
- Adriano Jagusic 1523 +3 for Santino Andino 1941 +977'Panathinaikos:Adriano Jagusic 1523 +3 for Santino Andino 1941 +9
- 79'Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka 1532 −8* for Federico Macheda 1613 −7Asteras Tripolis:Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka 1532 −8* for Federico Macheda 1613 −7
- Andrews Tetteh 2091 +16 assist Imrân Louza 2037 +2383'Panathinaikos:Andrews Tetteh 2091 +16 assist Imrân Louza 2037 +23
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 71% · 18% · 11%(Panathinaikos · draw · Asteras Tripolis)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 5–1 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Panathinaikos €4.3M, Asteras Tripolis €469K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Super League 1): Panathinaikos ranked #3 of 14, Asteras Tripolis #14.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Panathinaikos
1st in Super League 1 · 15 pts from 6
- 15 OctWBorac Banja Luka UEFA Conference League2037
- 11 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League2063
- 20 SepWKalamata Greece Super League2048
- 13 SepWPanetolikos Greece Super League2033
- 10 SepWKifisia Greece Super League2010
Asteras Tripolis
11th in Super League 1 · 5 pts from 6
- 10 OctWAtromitos Greece Super League1684
- 20 SepDOFI Greece Super League1674
- 13 SepDAEK Athens FC Greece Super League1654
- 7 SepLIraklis 1908 Greece Super League1662
- 30 AugLOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League1671
Season outlook
From the Super League 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 15 /6 | 53.6 | 31% | 96% | 0% | 1st |
| Asteras Tripolis | 5 /6 | 27.4 | 0% | <1% | 27% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Panathinaikos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2046
Asteras Tripolis · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1741
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Panathinaikos: possession-based (how Jacob Neestrup Hansen plays) · Asteras Tripolis: balanced profile (how Giorgos Antonopoulos plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.