Super League 1 · Regular Season - 9
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Panathinaikos host AEK Athens FC on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Super League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Panathinaikos 37%, draw 29%, AEK Athens FC 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Panathinaikos €3.8M, AEK Athens FC €4.7M.
- Home advantage makes Panathinaikos the favourite here: it adds 3 points to their win chance; Super League 1 has one of the three smallest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Super League 1: L. Jović is the highest-rated forward (2133).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Panathinaikos goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Panathinaikos 2050 · AEK Athens FC 2067
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Panathinaikos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2062
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2219
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Panathinaikos
1st in Super League 1 · 18 pts from 7
- 18 OctWAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2054
- 15 OctWBorac Banja Luka UEFA Conference League2037
- 11 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League2063
- 20 SepWKalamata Greece Super League2048
- 13 SepWPanetolikos Greece Super League2033
AEK Athens FC
4th in Super League 1 · 14 pts from 6
- 14 OctLShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League2104
- 10 OctWOFI Greece Super League2078
- 20 SepWVolos NFC Greece Super League2039
- 13 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2063
- 8 SepWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2092
Season outlook
From the Super League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 18 /7 | 55.4 | 41% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| AEK Athens FC | 14 /6 | 51.4 | 17% | 93% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Panathinaikos: possession-based (how Jacob Neestrup Hansen plays) · AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays)