Copa do Brasil · Semi-finals
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Palmeiras host Vasco DA Gama on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Copa do Brasil); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Palmeiras 58%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Palmeiras €8.9M, Vasco DA Gama €4.4M.
- Style contrast in attacking (Série A): Palmeiras rank #1 of 20, Vasco DA Gama #19.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Palmeiras goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Palmeiras 2157 · Vasco DA Gama 1996
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +11.0 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Vasco DA Gama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1977
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 69 pts from 32
- 24 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2148
- 22 OctLFluminense Copa Libertadores2181
- 17 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2160
- 15 OctWFluminense Copa Libertadores2155
- 11 OctWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2153
Vasco DA Gama
13th in Série A · 38 pts from 31
- 24 OctWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2004
- 21 OctLBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana2002
- 18 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2010
- 14 OctWBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana2010
- 10 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1990
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Ferreira plays) · Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel plays)