Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Arena Barueri, Barueri
Palmeiras host RB Bragantino on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Palmeiras 70%, draw 19%, RB Bragantino 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Palmeiras €8.6M, RB Bragantino €2.3M.
- Draw chance 19%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.2 over 180 days.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Palmeiras goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Palmeiras 2164 · RB Bragantino 1894
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Good) · Elo 2211
RB Bragantino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.8 (Good) · Elo 1945
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 66 pts from 31
- 17 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2160
- 15 OctWFluminense Copa Libertadores2155
- 11 OctWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2153
- 9 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2128
- 20 SepDGremio Brazil Serie A2152
RB Bragantino
10th in Série A · 41 pts from 31
- 18 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1871
- 13 OctWCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1847
- 7 OctDMirassol Brazil Serie A1841
- 3 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1894
- 20 SepLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1932
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 66 /31 | 79.7 | 30% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| RB Bragantino | 41 /31 | 50.4 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira plays) · RB Bragantino: balanced profile (how Vágner Carmo Mancini plays)