Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Palmeiras host Flamengo on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Palmeiras 38%, draw 29%, Flamengo 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Palmeiras €7.6M, Flamengo €10.2M.
- Home advantage makes Palmeiras the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Série A: A. Rossi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2356).
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.1 over 180 days.
- Flamengo's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Palmeiras goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–110%
- 0–010%
- 2–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Palmeiras 2144 · Flamengo 2264
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +11.0 (Elite) · Elo 2115
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.4 (Good) · Elo 2354
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 73 pts from 34
- 8 NovLVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil2172
- 5 NovWRemo Brazil Serie A2161
- 1 NovWVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil2167
- 28 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2162
- 24 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2136
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 76 pts from 34
- 4 NovWGremio Brazil Serie A2277
- 29 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A2279
- 26 OctWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A2242
- 23 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2251
- 18 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2251
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 73 /34 | 80.3 | 11% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Flamengo | 76 /34 | 84.5 | 89% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Ferreira plays) · Flamengo: possession-based (how Leonardo Jardim plays)