NewPlayerElo now rates women's footballExplore →
← All matches

Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo

Palmeiras crestPalmeirasTeam 2216
4–1
Full time
HT 2–0
Corinthians crestCorinthiansTeam 1868

Match story

Palmeiras · draw · Corinthians

Before kick-off: 74% · 17% · 9%

Live chances: Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0% at 90+2'1' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 74%, draw 17%, Corinthians 9%2' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 74%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%3' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 73%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%4' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 73%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%5' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 73%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%6' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 73%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%7' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 73%, draw 18%, Corinthians 9%8' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 72%, draw 19%, Corinthians 9%9' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 72%, draw 19%, Corinthians 9%10' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 72%, draw 19%, Corinthians 9%12' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 71%, draw 19%, Corinthians 9%13' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 71%, draw 20%, Corinthians 9%14' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 71%, draw 20%, Corinthians 10%15' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 70%, draw 20%, Corinthians 10%16' · 0–0 · Palmeiras 70%, draw 20%, Corinthians 10%17' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 8%, Corinthians 2%18' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 8%, Corinthians 2%19' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%20' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%21' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%22' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%23' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%24' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%25' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%26' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%27' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%28' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%29' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 89%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%30' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%31' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%32' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%33' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%34' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 9%, Corinthians 2%35' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%36' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%37' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%38' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%39' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%40' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%41' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%42' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%43' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%44' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%45' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%45+1' · 1–0 · Palmeiras 88%, draw 10%, Corinthians 2%45+2' · 2–0 · Palmeiras 98%, draw 2%, Corinthians 0%45+3' · 2–0 · Palmeiras 98%, draw 2%, Corinthians 0%45+4' · 2–0 · Palmeiras 98%, draw 2%, Corinthians 0%HT · 2–0 · Palmeiras 98%, draw 2%, Corinthians 0%47' · 3–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%48' · 3–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%49' · 3–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%50' · 3–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%51' · 3–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%52' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%53' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%54' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%55' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%56' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%57' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%58' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%59' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%60' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%61' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%62' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%63' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%64' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%65' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%66' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%67' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%68' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%69' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%70' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%71' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%72' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%73' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%74' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%75' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%76' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%77' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%78' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%79' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%80' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%81' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%82' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%83' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%84' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%85' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%86' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%87' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%88' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%89' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%90' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%90+1' · 4–0 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%90+2' · 4–1 · Palmeiras 100%, draw 0%, Corinthians 0%

Last reading, 90+2': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Palmeiras 74% to win: they did.

  1. 9'Palmeiras:Jhon Arias 2211 +12
  2. 15'Corinthians:Raniele 1913 −5
  3. 16'Palmeiras:Alexander Barboza 2105 +17 assist Lucas Evangelista 1997 +17
  4. 45+1'Palmeiras:Agustin Giay 2219 +5* assist Jhon Arias 2211 +12
  5. 46'Palmeiras:Matheus Bidu 1897 −3 (own goal)
  6. 48'Corinthians:Memphis Depay 1858 −5
  7. 49'Palmeiras:Agustin Giay 2219 +5*
  8. 51'Palmeiras:Agustin Giay 2219 +5*
  9. 57'Corinthians:Allan 1901 −11* for André Carrillo 1616 −15*
  10. 57'Corinthians:Vitinho 1814 −4 for Breno Bidon 1954 −4
  11. 59'Corinthians:Gabriel Paulista 1842 −8
  12. 65'Corinthians:Vitinho 1814 −4
  13. 69'Palmeiras:Maurício Magalhães Prado 2217 −7* for José Manuel López 2178 +4
  14. 69'Palmeiras:Emiliano Martínez 2118 −7* for Lucas Evangelista 1997 +17
  15. 69'Palmeiras:Ramon Sosa 2143 0 for Vitor Roque 2187 +4
  16. 69'Corinthians:André Ramalho 1753 −14* for André 1905 −2
  17. 69'Corinthians:Pedro Raul 1783 −2 for Yuri Alberto 2015 −7
  18. 72'Palmeiras:Gustavo Gómez 2171 +10
  19. 77'Palmeiras:Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho 2040 −6* for Ramon Sosa 2143 0
  20. 81'Palmeiras:Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho 2040 −6* (penalty missed)
  21. 83'Corinthians:Dieguinho 1601 −8* for Raniele 1913 −5
  22. 83'Palmeiras:Bruno Fuchs 2115 −8* for Gustavo Gómez 2171 +10
  23. 90+1'Corinthians:Gustavo Henrique 1843 −5

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GCarlos Miguel2199+5
DMurilo2181+4
DG. Gómez2171+10
DA. Barboza2105+17
MA. Giay2219+5*
MAndreas Pereira2159+14
MLucas Evangelista1997+17
MJ. Piquerez2199+5*
MJ. Arias2211+12
MJ. López2178+4
FVitor Roque2187+4
CAbel Ferreira2179+10
GHugo Souza1930−5
DMatheuzinho1910−4
DGabriel Paulista1842−8
DGustavo Henrique1843−5
DMatheus Bidu1897−3
MA. Carrillo1616−15*
MRaniele1913−5
MAndre1905−2
MM. Depay1858−5
MBreno1954−4
FYuri Alberto2015−7
CC. Seedorf1383−8*
Before kick-off: 74% · 17% · 9%(Palmeiras · draw · Corinthians)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (12%); the result 4–1 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Palmeiras €8.4M, Corinthians €3.6M.
  • Corinthians were without 2 expected starters: R. Garro (1928) and Kaio César (1946).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 30: 279 points.
  • Draw chance was 18%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
  • Palmeiras' expected eleven was in form: average +3.8 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Palmeiras

2nd in Série A · 60 pts from 29

  • 9 OctWBahia 2128
  • 20 SepDGremio 2152
  • 16 SepLLDU de Quito 2161
  • 12 SepWSao Paulo 2165
  • 9 SepWLDU de Quito 2157

Corinthians

16th in Série A · 32 pts from 29

  • 7 OctLInternacional 1931
  • 20 SepLFluminense 1916
  • 17 SepLEstudiantes L.P. 1916
  • 13 SepLFlamengo 1803
  • 10 SepDEstudiantes L.P. 1920

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Palmeiras60 /2977.430%100%0%2nd
Corinthians32 /2943.10%0%18%17th
Palmeiras
Corinthians

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Murilo
Murilo

Palmeiras · +8.0 (Good) · Elo 2177

Raniele
Raniele

Corinthians · +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1918

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative

Fernando Diniz Silva

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira plays) · Corinthians: balanced profile (how Fernando Diniz Silva plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.