Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
PalmeirasTeam 2208BahiaTeam 1898We gave Palmeiras 73% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 73% · 17% · 10%(Palmeiras · draw · Bahia)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Palmeiras €5.4M, Bahia €2.5M.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 57 pts from 28
- 20 SepDGremio Brazil Serie A2151
- 16 SepLLDU de Quito Copa Libertadores2161
- 12 SepWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2165
- 9 SepWLDU de Quito Copa Libertadores2157
- 6 SepDBotafogo Brazil Serie A2131
Bahia
6th in Série A · 46 pts from 28
- 20 SepLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1930
- 14 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1925
- 5 SepWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1939
- 30 AugWInternacional Brazil Serie A1927
- 23 AugWVitoria Brazil Serie A1899
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 57 /28 | 76.5 | 23% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Bahia | 46 /28 | 59.2 | 0% | 23% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +11.0 (Elite) · Elo 2109
Bahia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1975
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira plays) · Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Mücke Ceni plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.