Serie B · Regular Season - 8
Palermo vs Carrarese
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Palermo host Carrarese on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Palermo 66%, draw 21%, Carrarese 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Palermo €1.9M, Carrarese €935K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie B matchday 8: 276 points.
- Draw chance 21%, below the Serie B average of 27% this round.
- Serie B: F. Ranocchia is the highest-rated midfielder (2037).
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Palermo goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Palermo 1944 · Carrarese 1668
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Palermo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2037
Carrarese · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1625
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Palermo
1st in Serie B · 19 pts from 7
- 17 OctWMantova Italy Serie B1963
- 10 OctWEmpoli Italy Serie B1934
- 19 SepWPadova Italy Serie B1929
- 13 SepDAvellino Italy Serie B1889
- 7 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1947
Carrarese
13th in Serie B · 7 pts from 7
- 17 OctWModena Italy Serie B1656
- 11 OctWPadova Italy Serie B1620
- 19 SepLBenevento Italy Serie B1609
- 12 SepLCatanzaro Italy Serie B1589
- 5 SepLEmpoli Italy Serie B1646
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 19 /7 | 79.2 | 88% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Carrarese | 7 /7 | 46.2 | 0% | 3% | 20% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Palermo: balanced profile (how Filippo Inzaghi plays) · Carrarese: balanced profile (how Guido Pagliuca plays)