NB I · Regular Season - 9
Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Fehérvári úti stadion, Paks
PaksTeam 1555MTK BudapestTeam 1547- Ákos Kinyik 19'
- Kevin Horvath 74'
- Milan Pető 90+1'
We gave Paks 40% to win: they did.
- 10'Vilius Armalas 1571 −1MTK Budapest:Vilius Armalas 1571 −1
- Balázs Balogh 1424 +7*19'Paks:Balázs Balogh 1424 +7*
- Ákos Kinyik 1655 +25* assist János Szabó 1545 +11*19'Paks:Ákos Kinyik 1655 +25* assist János Szabó 1545 +11*
- János Szabó 1545 +11*25'Paks:János Szabó 1545 +11*
- 59'István Bognár 1468 −15* for Kristof Hinora 1548 −9*MTK Budapest:István Bognár 1468 −15* for Kristof Hinora 1548 −9*
- 59'Soma Szuhodovszki 1630 −11* for Gyorgy Komaromi 1598 −12*MTK Budapest:Soma Szuhodovszki 1630 −11* for Gyorgy Komaromi 1598 −12*
- Kevin Horvath 1664 0* for Balázs Balogh 1424 +7*67'Paks:Kevin Horvath 1664 0* for Balázs Balogh 1424 +7*
- 69'Benedek Varju 1602 −9* for Vilius Armalas 1571 −1MTK Budapest:Benedek Varju 1602 −9* for Vilius Armalas 1571 −1
- Barna Tóth 1588 −1* for Jozsef Szalai 1446 +2571'Paks:Barna Tóth 1588 −1* for Jozsef Szalai 1446 +25
- Milan Pető 1573 +3* for Zsolt Haraszti 1534 +38*71'Paks:Milan Pető 1573 +3* for Zsolt Haraszti 1534 +38*
- Kevin Horvath 1664 0* assist Barna Tóth 1588 −1*74'Paks:Kevin Horvath 1664 0* assist Barna Tóth 1588 −1*
- Barna Tóth 1588 −1*75'Paks:Barna Tóth 1588 −1*
- 78'Sámuel Barnabás Bakó for Adrian Zeljkovic 1649 −20*MTK Budapest:Sámuel Barnabás Bakó for Adrian Zeljkovic 1649 −20*
- 78'Milán Gábo Klausz 1280 −8* for Mark Kerezsi Zalan 1538 −8*MTK Budapest:Milán Gábo Klausz 1280 −8* for Mark Kerezsi Zalan 1538 −8*
- 87'Soma Szuhodovszki 1630 −11*MTK Budapest:Soma Szuhodovszki 1630 −11*
- Gergo Gyurkits 1524 −7* for József Windecker 1603 +13*89'Paks:Gergo Gyurkits 1524 −7* for József Windecker 1603 +13*
- Milan Pető 1573 +3* assist Barna Tóth 1588 −1*90+1'Paks:Milan Pető 1573 +3* assist Barna Tóth 1588 −1*
- 90+4'Benedek Varju 1602 −9*MTK Budapest:Benedek Varju 1602 −9*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 40% · 26% · 35%(Paks · draw · MTK Budapest)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–0 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Paks €269K, MTK Budapest €363K.
- Style contrast in possession (NB I): Paks ranked #10 of 10, MTK Budapest #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paks
6th in NB I · 11 pts from 8
- 19 SepWKisvarda FC NB I1537
- 5 SepLDebreceni VSC NB I1554
- 29 AugDNyiregyhaza NB I1579
- 21 AugWUjpest NB I1526
- 16 AugLPuskas Academy NB I1574
MTK Budapest
7th in NB I · 9 pts from 8
- 20 SepLGyori ETO FC NB I1569
- 5 SepLKisvarda FC NB I1611
- 28 AugDDebreceni VSC NB I1559
- 7 AugLPuskas Academy NB I1572
- 1 AugDBudapest Honved NB I1607
Season outlook
From the NB I simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paks | 11 /8 | 44.4 | <1% | 23% | 10% | 5th |
| MTK Budapest | 9 /8 | 39.4 | 0% | 7% | 30% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paks · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1496
MTK Budapest · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1626
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paks: high-pressing · direct (how György Bognár plays) · MTK Budapest: possession-based (how Mate Pinezits plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.