Super League · Regular Season - 25
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent
Pakhtakor host Neftchi on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Pakhtakor 49%, draw 27%, Neftchi 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Pakhtakor €433K, Neftchi €261K.
- Super League: K. Alijonov is the highest-rated defender (1791).
- M. Ubaydullayev, I. Pulatov, J. Đokić, V. Jovović, Z. Marušić and A. Odilov (Neftchi) have not played for over 90 days.
- Pakhtakor are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Pakhtakor goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Pakhtakor 1645 · Neftchi 1546
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Pakhtakor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1677
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Pakhtakor
2nd in Super League · 53 pts from 24
- 12 OctDAl-Qadisiyah FC AFC Champions League1641
- 11 AugWAl Hussein AFC Champions League1634
- 1 AugDAndijan Uzbekistan Super League1613
- 28 AprDNasaf Uzbekistan Super League1662
- 22 AprWBuxoro Uzbekistan Super League1657
Neftchi
1st in Super League · 55 pts from 24
- 12 OctLAl-Nassr AFC Champions League1641
- 16 JulWBuxoro Uzbekistan Super League1510
- 24 AprWXorazm Uzbekistan Super League1514
- 18 AprWNasaf Uzbekistan Super League1542
- 14 AprWBunyodkor Uzbekistan Super League1518
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor | 53 /24 | 64.4 | 45% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Neftchi | 55 /24 | 64.7 | 55% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –