Serie B · Regular Season - 13
Padova vs Sampdoria
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Padova host Sampdoria on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Padova 34%, draw 29%, Sampdoria 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Padova €1.0M, Sampdoria €1.6M.
- Sampdoria's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Padova goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–111%
- 1–011%
- 0–010%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores38%
Team Elo: Padova 1701 · Sampdoria 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Padova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1779
Sampdoria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1824
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Padova
10th in Serie B · 15 pts from 11
- 7 NovDEmpoli Italy Serie B1702
- 31 OctDCatanzaro Italy Serie B1684
- 27 OctWSudtirol Italy Serie B1687
- 24 OctWAvellino Italy Serie B1650
- 17 OctLVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1668
Sampdoria
15th in Serie B · 11 pts from 11
- 8 NovWCarrarese Italy Serie B1791
- 31 OctWVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1768
- 27 OctLAscoli Italy Serie B1757
- 24 OctDSudtirol Italy Serie B1759
- 18 OctLArezzo Italy Serie B1820
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 15 /11 | 52.2 | 0% | 8% | 3% | 9th |
| Sampdoria | 11 /11 | 54.5 | <1% | 15% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Padova: balanced profile (how A. Calabro plays) · Sampdoria: balanced profile (how Luca D'Angelo plays)