Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
Pacific FC vs Forge
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Starlight Stadium
Pacific FC host Forge on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Pacific FC 19%, draw 25%, Forge 56%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Pacific FC €127K, Forge €228K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Canadian Premier League Group Stage: 329 points.
- Canadian Premier League: D. Nimick is the highest-rated defender (1787).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Canadian Premier League): Pacific FC rank #1 of 7, Forge #7.
- Pacific FC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Pacific FC goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Pacific FC 1288 · Forge 1617
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Pacific FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1302
Forge · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1787
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Pacific FC
8th in Canadian Premier League · 14 pts from 27
- 17 OctLCavalry FC Canada Premier League1290
- 11 OctLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1271
- 7 OctLForge Canada Premier League1308
- 4 OctLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1335
- 27 SepWYork United Canada Premier League1256
Forge
2nd in Canadian Premier League · 57 pts from 27
- 17 OctWAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1578
- 12 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1585
- 7 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1587
- 3 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1580
- 26 SepDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1559
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific FC | 14 /27 | 14.8 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8th |
| Forge | 57 /27 | 58.9 | 26% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Pacific FC: balanced profile (how Terry Dunfield plays) · Forge: balanced profile (how Bobby Smyrniotis plays)