La Liga · Regular Season - 13
Osasuna vs Malaga
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Osasuna host Malaga on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Osasuna 50%, draw 27%, Malaga 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Osasuna €2.7M, Malaga €1.8M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (La Liga): Osasuna rank #18 of 20, Malaga #3.
- All 11 of Osasuna's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Osasuna goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 0–16%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Osasuna 1898 · Malaga 1842
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Osasuna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 (Good) · Elo 1720
Malaga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1926
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Osasuna
16th in La Liga · 12 pts from 12
- 7 NovDAthletic Club La Liga1914
- 2 NovLDeportivo La Coruna La Liga1938
- 26 OctLSevilla La Liga1928
- 18 OctWRacing Santander La Liga1910
- 11 OctLReal Betis La Liga1872
Malaga
20th in La Liga · 5 pts from 12
- 7 NovLRacing Santander La Liga1824
- 31 OctLReal Betis La Liga1847
- 23 OctDAlaves La Liga1808
- 18 OctLReal Sociedad La Liga1861
- 9 OctDEspanyol La Liga1847
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 12 /12 | 35.9 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 19th |
| Malaga | 5 /12 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 92% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Osasuna: balanced profile (how Arrasate plays) · Malaga: dribble-heavy (how Funes plays)