Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 5
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Orense SC host Tecnico Universitario on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Orense SC 45%, draw 28%, Tecnico Universitario 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Orense SC €268K, Tecnico Universitario €253K.
- Tecnico Universitario's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.2 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Orense SC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Orense SC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Orense SC 1523 · Tecnico Universitario 1475
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Orense SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1641
Tecnico Universitario · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1611
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Orense SC
13th in Liga Pro · 33 pts from 30
- 11 OctDDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1530
- 21 SepLManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1531
- 15 SepLUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1516
- 8 SepWGuayaquil City FC Ecuador Liga Pro1520
- 3 SepLLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1598
Tecnico Universitario
14th in Liga Pro · 32 pts from 30
- 16 OctLDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1489
- 10 OctLManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1500
- 20 SepDDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1525
- 13 SepWLeones del Norte Ecuador Liga Pro1509
- 5 SepLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1524
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orense SC | 34 /32 | 45.6 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 12th |
| Tecnico Universitario | 33 /33 | 42.3 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Orense SC: balanced profile (how Juan Pablo Buch Pabón plays) · Tecnico Universitario: balanced profile (how Ismael Blanco plays)