Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 7
Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa SC
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Orense SC host Mushuc Runa SC on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Orense SC 43%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa SC 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Orense SC €293K, Mushuc Runa SC €299K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Liga Pro): Orense SC rank #14 of 16, Mushuc Runa SC #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Orense SC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- 2–08%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Orense SC 1511 · Mushuc Runa SC 1485
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Orense SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1566
Mushuc Runa SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1535
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Orense SC
13th in Liga Pro · 33 pts from 30
- 8 NovLDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1506
- 2 NovDTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1531
- 24 OctWDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1501
- 19 OctDMushuc Runa SC Ecuador Liga Pro1481
- 11 OctDDeportivo Cuenca Ecuador Liga Pro1523
Mushuc Runa SC
11th in Liga Pro · 38 pts from 30
- 9 NovWDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1448
- 3 NovLManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1465
- 26 OctLTecnico Universitario Ecuador Liga Pro1518
- 19 OctDOrense SC Ecuador Liga Pro1491
- 9 OctLDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1506
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orense SC | 39 /36 | 44.9 | 0% | 0% | 35% | 12th |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 43 /36 | 48.4 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Orense SC: balanced profile (how J. Buch plays) · Mushuc Runa SC: direct (how P. Vélez plays)