Serie B · Regular Season - 35
Operario-PR vs Athletic Club
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC
Operario-PR host Athletic Club on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Operario-PR 40%, draw 29%, Athletic Club 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Operario-PR €299K, Athletic Club €409K.
- Home advantage makes Operario-PR the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Serie B): Operario-PR rank #3 of 23, Athletic Club #22.
- All 11 of Operario-PR's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Operario-PR goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Operario-PR 1586 · Athletic Club 1667
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Operario-PR · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1637
Athletic Club · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Operario-PR
10th in Serie B · 48 pts from 34
- 17 OctLAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1588
- 11 OctLGoias Brazil Serie B1568
- 7 OctLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1608
- 2 OctLJuventude Brazil Serie B1659
- 26 SepDCeara Brazil Serie B1653
Athletic Club
14th in Serie B · 44 pts from 34
- 18 OctDAvai Brazil Serie B1654
- 13 OctDLondrina Brazil Serie B1684
- 6 OctLGoias Brazil Serie B1694
- 1 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1655
- 27 SepDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1690
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | 48 /34 | 53.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
| Athletic Club | 44 /34 | 49.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Operario-PR: balanced profile (how Alberto Valentim do Carmo Neto plays) · Athletic Club: balanced profile (how Alexsandro de Souza plays)