Primera A · Clausura - 14
Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 01:10 UTC · Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Once CaldasTeam 1619LlanerosTeam 1504- Jorge Cardona 68'
We gave Once Caldas 56% to win: they did.
- Jefry Zapata33'Once Caldas:Jefry Zapata
- 35'Juan CastillaLlaneros:Juan Castilla
- 45'Jimmy Medranda offLlaneros:Jimmy Medranda off
- Juan Cuesta51'Once Caldas:Juan Cuesta
- 55'Carlos CortésLlaneros:Carlos Cortés
- 65'Carlos Cortés (penalty missed)Llaneros:Carlos Cortés (penalty missed)
- Jorge Cardona68'Once Caldas:Jorge Cardona
- 72'Carlos Cortés offLlaneros:Carlos Cortés off
- 73'Francisco MezaLlaneros:Francisco Meza
- 75'Jhon VasquezLlaneros:Jhon Vasquez
- 85'Juan Ramirez offLlaneros:Juan Ramirez off
- Felipe Gomez off88'Once Caldas:Felipe Gomez off
- Michael Barrios off88'Once Caldas:Michael Barrios off
- 90+1'Frank Castaneda offLlaneros:Frank Castaneda off
- 90+1'Juan Castilla offLlaneros:Juan Castilla off
- Andrés Roa off90+5'Once Caldas:Andrés Roa off
- Jader Quinones off90+8'Once Caldas:Jader Quinones off
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 56% · 25% · 19%(Once Caldas · draw · Llaneros)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Once Caldas €347K, Llaneros €227K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Once Caldas
5th in Primera A · 33 pts from 19
- 4 OctDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1666
- 26 SepLBucaramanga Colombia Primera A1629
- 20 SepLDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1654
- 16 SepWDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1630
- 13 SepLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1686
Llaneros
14th in Primera A · 22 pts from 19
- 5 OctLAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1538
- 26 SepLCucuta Colombia Primera A1571
- 21 SepWAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1533
- 12 SepLInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1537
- 7 SepLDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1545
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 33 /19 | 43.3 | 1% | 50% | 0% | 4th |
| Llaneros | 22 /19 | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Once Caldas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1692
Llaneros · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.2 (Average) · Elo 1548
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Once Caldas: balanced profile (how Hernán Darío Herrera Ramírez plays) · Llaneros: low-volume (how José Luis García Herrera plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.