Primera A · Clausura - 16
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 00:15 UTC · Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Once Caldas host Deportivo Pereira on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Once Caldas 66%, draw 21%, Deportivo Pereira 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Once Caldas €412K, Deportivo Pereira €193K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Primera A): Once Caldas rank #20 of 22, Deportivo Pereira #3.
- Deportivo Pereira's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Once Caldas goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Once Caldas 1678 · Deportivo Pereira 1452
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Once Caldas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1719
Deportivo Pereira · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1517
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Once Caldas
5th in Primera A · 33 pts from 19
- 18 OctWIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1678
- 10 OctWLlaneros Colombia Primera A1662
- 4 OctDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1666
- 26 SepLBucaramanga Colombia Primera A1629
- 20 SepLDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1654
Deportivo Pereira
20th in Primera A · 10 pts from 19
- 14 OctDJunior Colombia Primera A1415
- 10 OctDDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1410
- 4 OctLCucuta Colombia Primera A1459
- 29 SepLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1442
- 26 SepDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1465
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 33 /19 | 40.7 | <1% | 54% | 0% | 4th |
| Deportivo Pereira | 10 /19 | 16.4 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Once Caldas: balanced profile (how Hernán Darío Herrera Ramírez plays) · Deportivo Pereira: balanced profile (how José Aléxis Márquez Restrepo plays)