Primera A · Clausura - 5
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Once Caldas host Alianza Valledupar on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Once Caldas 61%, draw 23%, Alianza Valledupar 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Once Caldas €412K, Alianza Valledupar €220K.
- Alianza Valledupar's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Once Caldas goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Once Caldas 1678 · Alianza Valledupar 1507
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Once Caldas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1719
Alianza Valledupar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1516
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Once Caldas
5th in Primera A · 33 pts from 19
- 18 OctWIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1678
- 10 OctWLlaneros Colombia Primera A1662
- 4 OctDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1666
- 26 SepLBucaramanga Colombia Primera A1629
- 20 SepLDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1654
Alianza Valledupar
17th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 9 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1505
- 3 OctLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1524
- 27 SepWJaguares Colombia Primera A1502
- 19 SepLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1514
- 16 SepWChico Colombia Primera A1474
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 33 /19 | 40.7 | <1% | 54% | 0% | 4th |
| Alianza Valledupar | 17 /19 | 22.9 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Once Caldas: balanced profile (how Hernán Darío Herrera Ramírez plays) · Alianza Valledupar: balanced profile (how Camilo Andrés Ayala Quintero plays)