League Two · Regular Season - 16
Oldham vs Exeter City
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Boundary Park, Oldham
Oldham host Exeter City on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Oldham 38%, draw 29%, Exeter City 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Oldham €175K, Exeter City €259K.
- Home advantage makes Oldham the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Oldham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Oldham 1618 · Exeter City 1653
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Oldham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1651
Exeter City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Oldham
18th in League Two · 15 pts from 14
- 8 NovDSheffield Wednesday England FA Cup1609
- 3 NovWNorthampton England League Two1598
- 31 OctLCrawley Town England League Two1637
- 24 OctDBarnet England League Two1611
- 20 OctLWalsall England League Two1628
Exeter City
12th in League Two · 19 pts from 14
- 7 NovWHuddersfield England FA Cup1615
- 31 OctLSalford City England League Two1652
- 24 OctWFleetwood Town England League Two1622
- 20 OctWCrewe England League Two1613
- 17 OctDColchester England League Two1604
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 15 /14 | 56.4 | 0% | 2% | 18% | 20th |
| Exeter City | 19 /14 | 63.2 | <1% | 11% | 3% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Oldham: balanced profile (how M. Mellon plays) · Exeter City: balanced profile (how M. Taylor plays)