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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Oldham 4–1 Cheltenham

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Boundary Park, Oldham

Oldham crestOldhamTeam 1571
4–1
Full time
HT 3–1
Cheltenham crestCheltenhamTeam 1494

Match story

Oldham · draw · Cheltenham

Before kick-off: 47% · 28% · 25%

Live chances: Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Oldham 47%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%3' · 0–0 · Oldham 47%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%4' · 0–0 · Oldham 47%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%5' · 0–0 · Oldham 47%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%6' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%7' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 25%8' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%9' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%10' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%11' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%12' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%13' · 0–0 · Oldham 46%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%14' · 0–0 · Oldham 45%, draw 29%, Cheltenham 25%15' · 0–0 · Oldham 45%, draw 30%, Cheltenham 25%16' · 0–0 · Oldham 45%, draw 30%, Cheltenham 25%18' · 0–0 · Oldham 45%, draw 30%, Cheltenham 25%19' · 0–0 · Oldham 45%, draw 30%, Cheltenham 25%20' · 0–0 · Oldham 44%, draw 30%, Cheltenham 25%21' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%22' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%23' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%24' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%25' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%26' · 1–0 · Oldham 72%, draw 19%, Cheltenham 9%27' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%28' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%29' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%30' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%32' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%33' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%34' · 2–0 · Oldham 92%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%35' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 2%36' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%37' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%38' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%39' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%40' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%41' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%42' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%43' · 2–0 · Oldham 93%, draw 6%, Cheltenham 1%43' · 3–0 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%44' · 3–0 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%45+1' · 3–0 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%45+2' · 3–0 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%45+3' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%HT · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%46' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%47' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%48' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%49' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%50' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%51' · 3–1 · Oldham 94%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%52' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%53' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 5%, Cheltenham 1%54' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%55' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%56' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%57' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%58' · 3–1 · Oldham 95%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%59' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%60' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%61' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%62' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 4%, Cheltenham 1%63' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%64' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%65' · 3–1 · Oldham 96%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%66' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%67' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%68' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%69' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%70' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 3%, Cheltenham 0%71' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%72' · 3–1 · Oldham 97%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%73' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%74' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%75' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%76' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%77' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%78' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%79' · 3–1 · Oldham 98%, draw 2%, Cheltenham 0%80' · 3–1 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%81' · 3–1 · Oldham 99%, draw 1%, Cheltenham 0%82' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%83' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%84' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%85' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%86' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%87' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%88' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%89' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90+1' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90+2' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90+3' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90+4' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%90+5' · 4–1 · Oldham 100%, draw 0%, Cheltenham 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Oldham 47% to win: they did.

  1. 18'Cheltenham:Shaun McWilliams 1697 −10
  2. 19'Oldham:Calum Kavanagh 1715 +27 assist Favour fawunmi 1377 +86
  3. 24'Cheltenham:Charlie McCann 1636 −8
  4. 25'Oldham:Jamie Robson 1690 +31 assist Favour fawunmi 1377 +86
  5. 41'Oldham:Favour fawunmi 1377 +86 assist Calum Kavanagh 1715 +27
  6. 45+1'Cheltenham:Freddie willcox 1359 0
  7. 60'Cheltenham:K. Otchere 1373 0 for Shaun McWilliams 1697 −10
  8. 70'Oldham:Mike·Fondop-Talum 1608 −1 for Kane drummond 1704 +8
  9. 75'Cheltenham:Jake Bickerstaff 1614 −1 for George Miller 1555 −1
  10. 76'Oldham:Oliver Hammond 1497 +4 for Favour fawunmi 1377 +86
  11. 81'Oldham:Jamie Robson 1690 +31 assist Oliver Hammond 1497 +4
  12. 83'Oldham:Kai Payne 1670 +1 for Tom Pett 1659 +27
  13. 88'Cheltenham:Favour onukwuli 1427 −8* for Jake Evans 1142 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GM. Hudson1706+10
DW. Sutton1696+11
DD. Daniels1692+6
DE. Monthe1685+8
DJ. Robson1690+31
MO. Norburn1691+25
MK. Appiah-Forson1450+29
MF. Fawunmi1377+86
MT. Pett1659+27
MK. Drummond1704+8
FC. Kavanagh1715+27
CM. Mellon1618+22*
GW. Stanway1650−10
DJ. Wilson1453−10
DR. Cundy1659
DP. Sweeney1636−12
DG. Nurse1497−1
MS. McWilliams1697−10
MF. Willcox13590
MJ. Evans11420
MC. McCann1636−8
MJ. Shipley1625−9
FA. Weimann1603−12
CS. Cotterill1606−10
Before kick-off: 47% · 28% · 25%(Oldham · draw · Cheltenham)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–1 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Oldham €196K, Cheltenham €165K.
  • Home advantage made Oldham the favourite: it added 5 points to their win chance.
  • Cheltenham's expected eleven was out of form: average -2.1 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Oldham

21st in League Two · 8 pts from 9

  • 13 OctWLeeds United U21 1551
  • 10 OctDAccrington ST 1559
  • 26 SepLSalford City 1579
  • 22 SepWFleetwood Town 1561
  • 19 SepLRochdale 1578

Cheltenham

8th in League Two · 15 pts from 10

  • 13 OctDTottenham Hotspur U21 1585
  • 10 OctLSalford City 1560
  • 3 OctLAccrington ST 1627
  • 26 SepWChesterfield 1588
  • 22 SepDExeter City 1479

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Oldham8 /953.30%1%25%22nd
Cheltenham15 /1060.9<1%6%5%11th
Oldham
Cheltenham

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

O. Norburn
O. Norburn

Oldham · +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1666

C. McCann
C. McCann

Cheltenham · -0.3 (Average) · Elo 1644

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Micky Mellon

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Stephen John Cotterill

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Oldham: balanced profile (how Micky Mellon plays) · Cheltenham: direct (how Stephen John Cotterill plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.