Virsliga · Regular Season - 35
Ogre United vs Riga
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 11:00 UTC
Ogre United host Riga on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Virsliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ogre United 9%, draw 17%, Riga 74%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ogre United €154K, Riga €515K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Virsliga matchday 35: 559 points.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Virsliga average of 23% this round.
- Virsliga: A. Salazar is the highest-rated defender (1781).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ogre United goals first.
- 0–211%
- 0–39%
- 1–29%
- 1–38%
- 1–18%
- 0–17%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Ogre United 1100 · Riga 1659
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1780
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ogre United
10th in Virsliga · 18 pts from 33
- 17 OctLGrobiņa Latvia Virsliga1191
- 30 MayLAuda Latvia Virsliga1088
- 25 MayDGrobiņa Latvia Virsliga1082
- 21 MayLBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1119
- 16 MayLSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1061
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 79 pts from 33
- 18 OctWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1571
- 15 OctDKairat Almaty UEFA Conference League1637
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
- 31 AugLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1604
Season outlook
From the Virsliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 18 /33 | 19.8 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 10th |
| Riga | 79 /33 | 85.1 | 26% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.