Serie B · Regular Season - 33
Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons
NovorizontinoTeam 1783Ponte PretaTeam 1372- Ronald Barcellos Arantes 11'
- Juninho 25'
- Romulo Azevedo Simão 45+8' (pen)
- Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito 81'
- Eduardo Brock 90'
- Danilo 45'
We gave Novorizontino 78% to win: they did.
- Ronald Barcellos Arantes – assist Romulo Azevedo Simão –11'Novorizontino:Ronald Barcellos Arantes – assist Romulo Azevedo Simão –
- Juninho –25'Novorizontino:Juninho –
- Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas –43'Novorizontino:Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas –
- 45'Danilo assist Sergio Palacios –Ponte Preta:Danilo assist Sergio Palacios –
- 45'Felipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho for Danilo Barcelos –Ponte Preta:Felipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho for Danilo Barcelos –
- Eduardo Brock – for Romulo Azevedo Simão –45'Novorizontino:Eduardo Brock – for Romulo Azevedo Simão –
- 45'Karl Vedova Junior – for Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino –Ponte Preta:Karl Vedova Junior – for Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino –
- 45+1'Gustavo Felipe Almeida –Ponte Preta:Gustavo Felipe Almeida –
- Romulo Azevedo Simão – (pen.)45+8'Novorizontino:Romulo Azevedo Simão – (pen.)
- Madson Ferreira dos Santos –51'Novorizontino:Madson Ferreira dos Santos –
- 62'Gustavo Felipe Almeida –Ponte Preta:Gustavo Felipe Almeida –
- Luiz Otavio Maria – for Ronald Barcellos Arantes –67'Novorizontino:Luiz Otavio Maria – for Ronald Barcellos Arantes –
- Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho – for Nicolas Morês da Cruz –67'Novorizontino:Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho – for Nicolas Morês da Cruz –
- 68'DenisPonte Preta:Denis
- 69'Gustavo Lopes Teles – for Rodrigo·Souza –Ponte Preta:Gustavo Lopes Teles – for Rodrigo·Souza –
- 69'Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade for DaniloPonte Preta:Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade for Danilo
- Alexis·Alvarino – for Madson Ferreira dos Santos –79'Novorizontino:Alexis·Alvarino – for Madson Ferreira dos Santos –
- Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito – assist Luiz Otavio Maria –81'Novorizontino:Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito – assist Luiz Otavio Maria –
- Marlon – for Juninho –82'Novorizontino:Marlon – for Juninho –
- 84'Gustavo Lopes Teles –Ponte Preta:Gustavo Lopes Teles –
- 85'Emanuell Silva Ferreira for David da Hora –Ponte Preta:Emanuell Silva Ferreira for David da Hora –
- 88'DenisPonte Preta:Denis
- Eduardo Brock –90'Novorizontino:Eduardo Brock –
- 90+3'Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradePonte Preta:Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Before kick-off (provisional): 78% · 14% · 8%(Novorizontino · draw · Ponte Preta)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 5–1 had 3%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Novorizontino €526K, Ponte Preta €223K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie B matchday 33: 411 points.
- Draw chance was 14%, below the Serie B average of 26% this round.
- Serie B: Jordi was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1863).
- Style contrast in attacking (Serie B): Novorizontino ranked #1 of 24, Ponte Preta #23.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Novorizontino
3rd in Serie B · 57 pts from 32
- 8 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1776
- 2 OctWGoias Brazil Serie B1764
- 25 SepDSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1763
- 18 SepLCeara Brazil Serie B1778
- 13 SepDCuiaba Brazil Serie B1803
Ponte Preta
20th in Serie B · 13 pts from 32
- 7 OctLJuventude Brazil Serie B1384
- 3 OctLCuiaba Brazil Serie B1406
- 29 SepLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1438
- 20 SepWCRB Brazil Serie B1347
- 15 SepLLondrina Brazil Serie B1370
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 57 /32 | 66.8 | 26% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
| Ponte Preta | 13 /32 | 17.2 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Novorizontino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1808
Ponte Preta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1298
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Novorizontino: balanced profile (how Enderson Alves Moreira plays) · Ponte Preta: balanced profile (how Gilson Kleina plays)